Bounce back in China’s manufacturing sector points the way; other countries expected to follow as lockdown is lifted

Latest in series of on-line ADIPEC Energy Dialogues hears it could be late 2021 before oil and gas markets recover to 2019 volumes
OPEC+ supply constraints coming under pressure from US shale and indebted oil producers as prices strengthen; production cuts likely to be rolled over and extended

Abu Dhabi, UAE – XX June, 2020 – A revival in manufacturing across the world holds the key to the mid-term recovery of oil and gas markets, with consumer demand likely to lag as the energy industry begins to recover from the twin shock of the COVID-19 crisis and the resulting demand crash.

Participating in the latest online ADIPEC Energy Dialogue, Rachel Ziemba, an economic and political risk expert and Founder of Ziemba Insights, said the early signs from China, the first major economy to exit from the COVID-19 induced lockdown, are that manufacturing has bounced back more than consumption and that trend could be repeated in other countries.

“It is notable that the COVID crisis and the associated economic and energy crisis has really been the first to blow out the global consumer,” Ziemba said. “2008 was much more of a hit to the financial sector and manufacturing. This time it is the reverse. The big question is how quickly consumer demand will come back.”

Ziemba added it could be well into 2021 before oil and gas markets get to volumes approaching where the industry was at the end of 2019.

Looking at the trends likely to impact the recovery of oil markets in the mid-term, Ziemba said the OPEC Plus group of producers has had some success in tightening the market. But a question mark hangs over how long supply can be constrained.

“The challenge is that a few countries, those that are most economically strapped and not eligible for debt relief, are not complying in full and some have barely reduced production,” Ziemba said. “Despite pressure from the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia, it is going to be very difficult for them to comply because these are countries that had big fiscal deficits when oil was $70 a barrel.

“The other challenge is that we are starting to see parts of the US shale industry starting to reverse shut ins. We are also seeing more rig activity after many weeks of decline. In a price range of mid-30s into a 40 range, there will be more entities that can make some money and the risk is that it puts even more pressure on OPEC Plus. So, I do think the most likely scenario is a rolling over and extension of the supply cuts.”

Access to credit, to support economic recovery, is an additional challenge for indebted oil producing countries, which are having to deal with multiple shocks at the same time, including sizable outbreaks of the COVID-19 coronavirus that may or may not be under control. Many of the oil producers that are in a tougher financial position than their rich peers are too wealthy to qualify for debt relief, Ziemba said, heightening social, political and economic risks which could further impact the oil and gas industry.

Elsewhere, as oil and gas companies seek for ways to recover, Ziemba said she expects to see some industry consolidation, particularly in the United States with more cash rich entities looking to go into smaller, more speculative areas that are lower cost. She also highlighted the possibility of further job cuts as companies become leaner and decide between boosting commercial reserves, or partnering with governments. Meanwhile, she added she expects to see more National Oil Company enter into partnerships, for example Middle East producers and Asian buyers, which enable greater creativity in payment terms and contracts.

The ADIPEC Energy Dialogue is a series of weekly online thought leadership events created by dmg events, organisers of the annual Abu Dhabi International Exhibition and Conference. Featuring key stakeholders and decision-makers in the oil and gas industry, the dialogues focus on how the industry is evolving and transforming in response to the rapidly changing energy market.

ADIPEC 2020 is projected to attract more than 155,000 energy professionals from 67 countries; including senior decision-makers and energy industry thought leaders, over 2,200 exhibiting companies and 23 national exhibiting pavilions as oil and gas companies convene to share views and best practices to address the long-term impact of the triple challenge of lower oil prices, weaker demand and over supply.

Held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE; hosted by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC); and supported by the UAE Ministry of Energy & Industry, the Abu Dhabi Chamber, and the Abu Dhabi Tourism and Culture Authority, ADIPEC is scheduled to take place from November 9 to 11, at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).

To watch the Energy Dialogue series go to: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnFtPtFwMrRkuGUTk4Rh4tA

Heidenhain has incorporated new software into its TNC control systems that allows complex trochoidal milling routines to be programmed conversationally on the shop floor, without having to download the cycles from a CADCAM station

OCM (optimised contour milling) functionality is a new option available for the company’s TNC640, TNC 620 and TNC 320 CNC systems.
The OCM algorithm takes conventional ideas for trochoidal milling, traditionally used to achieve high material removal rates when slotting, and considerably expands the range of application. In addition to the roughing of any open or closed pocket or island, the software also offers cycles for finishing the floors and side walls.
A milling tool’s wrap angle can be limited to reduce heat generation and prolong cutter life. As cutting forces are lower, delicate and thin-wall parts can be machined with greater accuracy, and even spindles with low power and torque can be used successfully, says the company. Moreover, as the milling cutter occupies less of the area of a slot or pocket during machining, the accumulation and re-cutting of chips is minimised, which is particularly important for features that are deep in comparison with their width.
The control automatically calculates the best tool paths for maintaining constant cutting parameters. Subsequent machining operations run with continuously optimised cutting values, resulting in increased machining speed and a noticeable reduction in tool wear, reports Heidenhain. A sample part produced recently in Germany demonstrated the effectiveness of the new milling strategy: OCM lowered the machining time and raised tool life by a factor of three compared with conventional milling strategies.
For further information www.heidenhain.co.uk

The DP Technology team has launched the first commercial version of Esprit CAM software that includes additive direct energy deposition (DED) cycles.

Esprit’s additive capabilities are the product of the team’s more than 35 years of experience in tool-path generation, and include the same intuitive user interface that users expect from the software. The product release includes three-axis, four-axis and five-axis DED support. Combined with subtractive processes into a single software, DP Technology brings a full spectrum of support to hybrid manufacturing. Esprit’s additive DED cycles include additive simulation and verification, as well as global support from the software’s technical teams.
Notably, DP Technology validated its post processor through collaboration with major machine manufacturers and educational nstitutions.
“For more than a decade, we’ve been working on additive manufacturing, including research on DED tool-path trajectories and AM thermal simulation,” says Frederic Vignat, head of the additive department at Grenoble University in France. “Esprit’s additive DED solution is the result of close collaboration between DP Technology and Grenoble University, a world-leading research institution on additive DED technology.”
The new additive cycle offers users a full-spectrum additive solution, from CAD file to finished part.
For further information www.espritcam.eu

CAD/CAM/CNC software specialist, ModuleWorks, is celebrating a special milestone with the millionth commit to its software version control system.

“This is a special day because it means we’ve improved, enhanced and extended our software 1,000,000 times,” says David Plater, technical director of ModuleWorks. Founded as an independent CADCAM component supplier in 2003, ModuleWorks has grown into a 200-strong international team whose software solutions are optimising the quality and efficiency of manufacturing processes in over 500,000 seats of installed CADCAM and CNC software around the world.
For further information www.moduleworks.com

During the pandemic, with the help of machining centres from DMG Mori, German firm Franke GmbH is meeting the challenge of soaring demand for the urgent supply of system components used in medical equipment such as CT scanners.

High-end special bearings with integrated drives for CT scanners, bearings for ceiling lights in intensive care units, and special bearings for medical centrifuges and laboratory equipment, are just a few examples of the components Franke produces for manufacturers in the medical industry.
To meet the high quality that users demand, Franke relies for its production on six machining centres featuring turning capability from DMG Mori, including some with twin-pallet change and an accuracy pack. A special focus at present is on the imminent delivery of two more DMC 125 FD duoBLOCK mill-turn centres with 1,250 x 1,250 x 1,000 mm working volume.
Sascha Eberhard, managing director of Franke, says: “We are being presented with a challenge during the pandemic of ensuring uninterrupted supply of our products to vital industries, while at the same time diligently implementing social distancing and other protective measures in our factory.”
The company has used machining centres from DMG Mori since 2008 to ensure flexibility of production. Depending on the type of product, batch sizes are between 1 and 1000-off per project. Workpiece materials range from diverse types of wire, through aluminium, brass and cast steel, to plastics and carbon fibre.
One of the two recently ordered DMC 125 FD duoBLOCK machines will be equipped with the DMG Mori ‘gearSKIVING’ technology cycle to enable the in-house production of straight and helical external/internal spur gears using skiving tools, reducing both cost and throughput times.
For further information www.dmgmori.com